– which has been shrinking for three decades – though still lagging in some areas of very advanced electronics. However, if Beijing really presses the accelerator pedal – using the AUKUS submarine announcement as justification – then the production of the Virginia class will need to match that, meaning that there will be no spare submarines for Australia until way in the future.Ĭhina’s industrial base is larger than that of the U.S. industrial base is predicated on the linear growth in China’s submarine numbers. The second factor is the rate of growth of the Chinese navy – the PLA(N). ![]() Even a few oldish submarines will have considerable deterrent capability, though at a truly eye-watering cost. They will still presumably have plenty of life left in them – the very first Virginia was commissioned in 2004 – because otherwise that would defeat the point of the exercise. This might also suit the RAN since the first in the series, being slightly less complex, might be preferred for training purposes. industrial base might have enough excess capacity by the early 2030s to sell Virginia class submarines to Australia – although a far more likely scenario will be to keep the USN happy by giving them the new boats, allowing them to offload older ones in the series. Gearing up for more nuts and bolts is easy – but stepping up the construction of naval reactors are orders of magnitude more challenging. Nuclear-powered SSNs are complex beasts, with each one comprising an estimated ten million components – so that’s an enormous supply chain that needs to be mobilised. The wording of the AUKUS statements indicates that Australia will now also pour money into this expansion process. In the case of the Virginia class, Electric Boat undertakes final assembly and integration, with construction of hull modules evenly distributed between the two builders.īoth companies are investing in people and facilities to support increased submarine production, which also needs to factor in the Columbia class SSBNs that are the highest priority of all. able to produce nuclear-powered submarines: General Dynamics Electric Boat (EB) and Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII). This ramp-up is indeed currently taking place. There seems to be general agreement in Washington that just to maintain a healthy edge over China and other rivals such as Russia, the drumbeat for Virginia class production will need to increase to at least two per year. Nothing else makes sense – and certainly the USN will not deprive itself of submarines deemed vital to the national interest just to be nice to Australia. has excess capacity to build them – and reaching that goal is still some time away. We don’t know what has been said behind closed doors, but it is highly likely that Australia will be sold submarines when the U.S. to ramp up the construction tempo of the Virginia class.Īt the moment, they are being launched at a rate of one or two per year, averaging out at 1.5 every twelve months, or to put it more realistically – because no one wants half a submarine – three Virginia class are completed every two years. ![]() This is true – but it ignores the most important part of the equation: the need for the U.S. The first thing to focus on is the timing – why the early 2030s? The Americans say that Australia needs time to prepare for their arrival with the need to build facilities and train crews. And with the support and approval of Congress, beginning in the early 2030s, the United States will sell three Virginia-class submarines to Australia with the potential to sell up to two more if needed, jumpstarting their undersea capability a decade earlier than many predicted.” “They feature cutting-edge propulsion technology, provide unmatched stealth and manoeuvrability. President Biden said of the Virginia class: It is also a statement based on two important assumptions, both of which could change in the decade or so before the submarines are due to be delivered. However, this overlooks the reality of how Washington operates. President are hugely consequential and when Joe Biden said that Virginia class submarines will be sold to Australia, many people seem to assume that the deal has been done.
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